First, I probably shouldn't post after a GABF victory party... :
Second, yes, I misunderstood your question. My bad, x2.
With settings of:
Using your model of 7 lb LME for 5 gallons, I get 1.050 as extract, partial and full mash versions. No difference.
As extract only,
errors begin to occur when adding in trub loss for an extract batch. The more the trub loss, the wider the error. Clearly it's a math error because it's predicting more gravity from the same fully soluble material in a greater amount of liquid.
This seems to be due to how BeerSmith predicts mash efficiency increases with increasing trub loss. I'm observing the gravity rise even with decreased brewhouse efficiency, which is how the trub loss should be addressed in BeerSmith. That seems like a bug, to me.
Moving on to grain.
Going back to the baseline.
- 100% efficiency
- no trub loss
- mash ratio of 1.25:1
- resting at 148F
In partial and full mash versions, the grain models correctly. That is, that 1 lb in 1 gallon equals the full potential of the grain. Adding 0.5 gal trub loss to 5 gallons, the gravity falls by 9%, which is also correctly modeled (5 / 5.5 = 90.9%).
In extract, the grains become worth about 22% of their potential. It's about half of what Palmer states and what this experiment found: http://www.homebrewtalk.com/f128/testing-fermentability-crystal-malt-208361/index11.html
Closer contribution numbers can be created by boosting the grain potential to 100%. Simply double click the grain and change the yield field in the extract recipe. This leaves the grain database intact for future all grain batches.
However, in this case, fermentability is a factor because steeped grain attenuation is so low. The base extract is much more fermentable. If steeped grain were given a higher potential and the same fermentability of 75 - 80% (which that link shows is not true), real world extract beers would finish much higher than predicted. So, the low contribution number seems to be offset by the statistical reality of what steeped specialty grains do in a beer.