Author Topic: InBev/SAB/Heineken  (Read 6034 times)

KernelCrush

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InBev/SAB/Heineken
« on: October 12, 2014, 04:11:50 AM »
You may have heard the rumor of InBev seeking financing to take SABMiller, and SAB's purchase offer (rumored as a way to fend off InBev's attempt) to Heineken which was rejected.  Any guesses as to how this will play out? 

http://fortune.com/2014/09/15/big-brewers-consolidation/

Offline brewfun

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2014, 04:41:25 AM »
I don't think a merger would have much effect on US and European consumers. AB-Inbev already dominates developed markets. Plus, regulators would probably make them spin off either part of their business or the Miller/Coors/Molson part of SAB's business. That's what happened when AB-Inbev bought Grupo Modello.

I think the merger has two aims. First is access to emerging world markets in Asia and Africa, where SAB is ahead of InBev. Second is gaining more control over procing in N. America and Europe.

InBev's deal for Modello resulted in a friendly competitor making Mexican beers in the US and allowed price increases. For years before the merger Grupo Modello resisted price increases, which forced Inbev to take reduced profits and some losses.
Beer Appreciation is the space between pints.

KernelCrush

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2014, 07:26:47 AM »
Everyone seems to be getting lured by the big bucks.  I would.  Besides Goose Island and Blue Point, 
"A-B owns about a 35% stake in Craft Brew Alliance (BREW). It owns 49% of Coastal Brewing, Fordham Brewing, and Old Dominion. More than 70% of craft-brewing pioneer Mendocino Brewing is held by India-based United Brewery Holdings. Terrapin Brewing sold a 35% stake in the company to SAB in 2011, in exchange for funding for a $4.5 million expansion to double its brewing capacity."

They have to answer to their shareholder(s) is the downside.  Who's next to be swallowed whole?









Offline brewfun

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2014, 08:27:25 AM »
A merger of InBev & SAB has nothing to do with Craft consolidation.

Consolidation in the craft industry will happen. It's just a matter of time and perhaps how.

Craft beer pioneers have spent decades building their business and are getting close to retirement. Ken Grossman (Sierra Nevada) recently announced his Son, Brian, will head up the Ashville operation. However, he's tried to get more of his kids involved and it wasn't for them. Beer is a special business, Craft even more so.

The biggest in the Craft business have to have and exit strategy. Most are privately owned. What happens when you get to be among the biggest and you look around for buyers? Not too many with the skills and money to take your business, are there? Do you just pack it up? Or do you find a way to realize all the deferred equity you've built?

I suspect that Craft Brewery public offerings will become a reality. It's an elegant way to solve the issue. However, after decades of hearing these pioneers talk and explain their philosophy, I'm certain that won't come while they're in charge. They're just too independent to allow themselves to live in the fishbowl of public stock.

New Belgium and others have opted for an employee ownership program. This works, but is slow and worth less than offering stock publicly.

An outright cash buyer is the most direct method of transfer. Again, not a lot of those to be found in the beer biz.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2014, 08:29:21 AM by brewfun »
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KernelCrush

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2014, 08:38:56 AM »
Beer stocks, BREW especially, has been on a rip since the rumors surfaced.  I am thinking more craft is their next step if they get SAB. No?

Offline grathan

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2014, 09:19:47 AM »
I am surprised the quality of Goose Island has remained good since InBev bought them.

Brewfun are you saying this because of sales declines? I don't see how it's the smaller breweries that will have to make sacrifices, but rather the larger ones grabbing craft breweries just to maintain their sales volumes.

Offline brewfun

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2014, 10:05:55 AM »
I am surprised the quality of Goose Island has remained good since InBev bought them.

I'm not. When you can make the most consistent, lightest, most transparent beer possible, adding flavor is not a challenge.

Quote
Brewfun are you saying this because of sales declines?

Yes. But not expressly because of it. The SAB/Miller purchase is about access to new markets, which would easily offset the N. America & Europe declines.

Craft acquisition by InBev has always been their business model. After all, their first purchase was Hoegaarden. In the US, their first Craft investment was with Redhook.

Quote
I don't see how it's the smaller breweries that will have to make sacrifices, but rather the larger ones grabbing craft breweries just to maintain their sales volumes.

I'm not following.... What sacrifices?
Beer Appreciation is the space between pints.

KernelCrush

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2014, 10:09:30 AM »
I hear Becks has declined since the purchase, but I haven't had one since the 80's.  Some guy who was a Becks fan and posted so negatively on InBevs facebook that they unfriended him. Huge loss for him. 

Offline grathan

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Re: InBev/SAB/Heineken
« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2014, 02:32:01 PM »
Could just be A Double Dutch Sandwich.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_Irish_arrangement