Missed Target SG as shown in BS

Hi All,
I got the bug a few weeks ago and decided to dive in to the All Grain deep end.  I did an IPA last week and things went really smooth.  No issues really.  I did a Honey Brown yesterday and had a few things happen.  I have a few questions for the experts here! 

Just a little background...my wife is a cancer survivor and is pretty sensitive to pesticides in food..one of the big gifts of having cancer.  But we both love beer so I decided that I would try to brew some of our favorites but go all organic...no additives, all organic grains and hops. 

1.  Please look over the recipe below...any issues? 

2.  Pre boil SG 1.030 (1.032 est).  Close enough?

3.  My big concern is missing my post boil SG.  BS called for 1.048 and I got 1.038.  I used all volumes in BS to a T, but I cut off the boil at 60 mins before the post boil volume was at the target (6.24gals).  Would this be the cause?  Should I have kept boiling to the target SG?  Ive also attached my equipment profiles...take a gander and see if anything is way off. 

4.  During my fly sparge, my water started losing heat (forgot to keep the lid on).  I was trying not to rush the sparge so I get all the sugars off the grain, but worried that toward the end my sparge water was too cool ( dropped to 145 or so).  Concern?  I am doing all this stove top so I can't keep a burner going when the HLT is raised. 

Other than than those concerns...things went pretty well. 

For equipment, I have three MegaPot 1.2s. 

I appreciate any feedback you guys have.  Thanks!

David




BeerSmith 2 Recipe Printout - http://www.beersmith.com
Recipe: Organic All American Honey Brown Ale
Brewer: David Holland
Asst Brewer:
Style: Northern English Brown Ale
TYPE: All Grain
Taste: (30.0)

Recipe Specifications
--------------------------
Boil Size: 7.16 gal
Post Boil Volume: 6.66 gal
Batch Size (fermenter): 5.50 gal 
Bottling Volume: 5.00 gal
Estimated OG: 1.043 SG
Estimated Color: 12.5 SRM
Estimated IBU: 21.0 IBUs
Brewhouse Efficiency: 68.00 %
Est Mash Efficiency: 79.1 %
Boil Time: 60 Minutes

Ingredients:
------------
Amt                  Name                                    Type          #        %/IBU       
5.00 gal              San Antonio Water                        Water        1        -           
7 lbs                Organic 2-Row, Premium - Great Western ( Grain        2        80.0 %       
4.0 oz                Organic Caramel Malt 90-120L - Briess (1 Grain        3        2.9 %       
4.0 oz                Organic Chocolate Malt 350L - Briess (35 Grain        4        2.9 %       
4.0 oz                Organic Crystal 40 Malt - Great Western  Grain        5        2.9 %       
1.00 oz              Organic Goldings [6.00 %] - Boil 60.0 mi Hop          6        21.0 IBUs   
2.0 pkg              California Ale (White Labs #WLP001) [35. Yeast        7        -           
1 lbs                Organic Texas Wildflower Honey (1.0 SRM) Sugar        8        11.4 %       


Mash Schedule: Single Infusion, Medium Body
Total Grain Weight: 8 lbs 12.0 oz
----------------------------
Name              Description                            Step Temperature    Step Time   
Mash In          Add 2.92 gal of water at 161.7 F        152.0 F            60 min       
Mash Out          Add 1.36 gal of water at 206.6 F        168.0 F            10 min       

Sparge: Fly sparge with 4.31 gal water at 168.0 F
Notes:
------


Created with BeerSmith 2 - http://www.beersmith.com
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dharch said:

2.  Pre boil SG 1.030 (1.032 est).  Close enough?

3.  My big concern is missing my post boil SG.  BS called for 1.048 and I got 1.038.  I used all volumes in BS to a T, but I cut off the boil at 60 mins before the post boil volume was at the target (6.24gals).  Would this be the cause?  Should I have kept boiling to the target SG?  Ive also attached my equipment profiles...take a gander and see if anything is way off. 

Click to expand...

If BS calculated pre-boil of 1.032 and a final of 1.048, that's 16 points of evaporation, which is 50% of what it thought you would lauter, which sees like  a lot to me. 

Missing pre-boil by two points added two points to make up, so now you need 18 points and got only eight (1.038 from 1.030).  So the actual boil rate needed did not occur. 

Getting that much evaporation on stove-top seems aggressive to me, so you might start by verifying the measurements, esp. the boil-off you think you actually achieved.  Enter that into BS before the next brew. 

It's an iterative process, and each time you take accurate measurements and revise the settings in BSmith, it gets closer and closer.  After enough batches, you'll be making the target beer each time. 

Just a quick look through your posted recipe, I can see the following:

You were 2 points low on your preboil sg (1.030 vs 1.032).  What was your actual pre-boil volume vs the predicted volume of 7.16 gal?

Your OG is listed as 1.043 in the recipe print-out, not 1.048 as listed in your description.  At 1.038 measured, you are only 5 points low, this might be a volume or boil off rate issue.

You stopped the boil at 60 minutes and ended up with a volume of ??.  Your predicted ending volume in the recipe print-out was 6.66 gal which does not compute given the boil off rate from your equipment set up.

This information might help you bring your equipment profile closer to match your actual results or troubleshoot why your numbers were off.

Thanks MaltLicker and Oginme for the help and the insight.  I am starting to see what I did/what happened.  I think I will reduce the amount of expected boil off and see if I get closer. 

Ill be giving it another go in a day or two.  Much appreciated!!