This would be a real swag at the number. Basically, the program would need to assume that you have 100% conversion and then give you the saturated wort gravity related to your water to grist ratio for your mash. Without any other information on the conversion efficiency of your system, it could do no better. Kai Troister had a good presentation on efficiencies which covers this and can be found at http://braukaiser.com/wiki/index.php/Understanding_Efficiency.
In essence, the number BeerSmith gave you would be a pure speculation.
My question is why would you hold back water? Generally when I brew, my main target is the volume. If I am off by a couple of points, I can decide to let it ride, dilute the wort down a little, add some DME to bring the gravity in line with expectations, or adjust my boil time to compensate for the difference (this is my preferred option the few times this has happened). In expectation of the possibility of adjustment, I will target a 90 minute boil with my first hop addition at 60 minutes. This gives me plenty of opportunity to lengthen or shorten the boil times according to any adjustment in gravity I need to make. Since I know my boil off rate, I can calculate the difference needed to bring the wort into alignment with where it should be from the beginning and then start the timer. My process allows for a 9% loss when pouring into the fermenter, so I have that value to work with in volume and still hit my targets all around.